Barclays Expects Contraction In Fourth Quarter For Major Economies – – Daily Cryptocurrency and FX News

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Global growth is steering towards an “increasingly synchronous downturn”, economists at Barclays said on Thursday, pointing to continued lockdowns in China, a deepening energy crisis in Europe, and tightening financial conditions across economies.

Barclays expects a slowdown in global growth to 2.2% next year compared to2.8% this year, and cautioned that it expects major economies to shrink in the fourth quarter with zero growth next year. Global growth came in at 6.3% in 2021.

Central banks across the world have been sharply tightening monetary policy, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that deepened supply-chain issues, to keep surging inflation contained as economies are still bouncing back from the pandemic.

A slowdown in global growth will steer the world “close to a global recession,” Barclays said, adding that much of the unsettling news was already out of the way.

“This is a poor economic outlook. But it could have been worse. There is a line between gloom and doom, and that is where we believe the global economy sits.”

Indicators are giving mixed signals about the health of the U.S. economy amid the Fed’s tightening round, the brokerage said, adding that the United States will only be “narrowly” evading a full recession next year.

Barclays forecasts a recession in Europe in the first half of next year and expects that China will see a small rebound in fourth-quarter GDP growth, under its target of 5.5%, with the brokerage also slashing the country’s 2023 GDP growth by 80 basis points to 4.5%.

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